Last Updated: October 01. 2010 6:52PM
NHTSA may require 62 mpg by 2025
David Shepardson / Detroit News Washington Bureau
Washington -- The Obama administration said today it could impose a fleetwide requirement of 62 miles per gallon for cars and light trucks by 2025, but acknowledged that such a mandate could add $3,500 to the average cost of a new vehicle.
The administration said it is considering annual increases in fuel efficiency ranging from 3 to 6 percent between 2017 and 2025, which equates to a fleetwide average of 47 mpg and 62 mpg by the period's end. The range of costs per vehicle is $770 to $3,500, depending on the stringency.
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If it adopts the toughest standard, the administration said, automakers would have to focus on plug-in electric, full electric and hybrid technology and rely "less on advanced gasoline vehicles and mass reduction." Under the toughest scenario, the government estimates 14 percent of all vehicles would full electric vehicles.
The agencies also assume vehicles will get lighter -- 15 to 30 percent -- by 2025 depending on how tough the requirements are. The 250-page interim technical report released today doesn't look at the safety impacts of the range of fuel efficiency increases.
The administration will propose its plan by late 2011 and will finalize new requirements by 2012. Today's formal notice sets off a two-year battle between automakers and environmentalists over the stringency of the new rules.
But the Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration say under all scenarios, consumers would save money over the lifetime of ownership. Under the 6 percent increase, owners would see fuel savings of $5,700 to $7,400, which would cover the higher up-front costs within four years. The 6 percent annual requirement would save 1.3 billion barrels of oil over the lifetime of the vehicles.
But some automakers, especially smaller ones, could face higher costs. NHTSA and EPA could also scrap the 3 to 6 percent range, and go higher or lower the agencies said.
Separately, eight governors, led by New York's David Patterson, urged the Obama administration to sharply boost car and light truck fuel efficiency requirements to a fleet-wide average of 60 miles per gallon by 2025.
That would represent about a 6 percent annual increase over the 34.1 mpg standard set by the administration for the 2016 model year; automakers argue that the administration should base the next round of increase on a scientific review, not an arbitrary figure.
The governors of New York, Maine, Massachusetts, New Mexico, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Oregon and Washington also want the administration to boost the efficiency of medium- and heavy-duty trucks by at least 35 percent when they set the first ever standards for those larger trucks, as required under a 2007 energy law.
"We urge you to set ambitious new standards for passenger vehicles," the governors wrote President Barack Obama Thursday. "We have seen the automakers meet goals time and time again, and we are confident that technological improvements, including the plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles that they are rolling out, will increase efficiency and affordability further and will make 60 miles per gallon commonplace."
The governors echo the push by more than 20 environmental groups for 60 mpg.
"The problem with setting the bar at just a 3 percent improvement per year is that it puts the U.S. auto industry on a path towards mediocrity. A 6 percent improvement, which translates into a 62 miles-per-gallon fuel efficiency standard, will really encourage innovative ideas, create more jobs, and do more to put the country's auto industry back in a leadership role. But beyond the jobs and economic benefits, a stronger standard will help break our crippling dependence on oil," said Natural Resources Defense Council Transportation Program Director Roland Hwang said.
The high end of new requirements could very expensive. The administration said this year the boost to 34.1 mpg by 2016 would cost automakers $51.5 billion.
Last week, the NHTSA chief said the Obama administration wouldn't endorse a 60 mpg fleet-wide requirement for vehicles by 2025 until it conducts a full review.
"We're not going to make any decisions until we have the data and the facts and science behind us," said NHTSA chief David Strickland. "We're not making any prognostications on what is feasible until we know for a fact."
The 2017-25 timeframe "feels like a long way away, but it isn't," Strickland said, noting the long-range product planning of automakers.
The state of California agreed not to invoke its legal right to impose its own tailpipe emissions limits through the 2016 model year as part of a White House deal with automakers that essentially adopted California's 34.1 mpg fleetwide requirement by 2016, but gave automakers more flexibility in the early years of the 2012-16 requirements.
dshepardson@detnews.com (202) 662-8735
From The Detroit News:
http://www.detnews.com/article/20101001/AUTO01/10010427/1148/auto01/NHTSA-may-require-62-mpg-by-2025#ixzz11BHQlnYW
