If it's not a daily why worry about it? I would just go with a decnet 33x12.50 and not worry at all. You will still have more than enough power to wheel and even on the street you will still see 55-60 mph. The 33x10.50's would be ok but I would rather have a larger contact patch when I wheel. I drove my 99 TJ with a manual and 4.10's with 33's for about a year before I regeared up to 4.88's.
As for upgrading the axle, as long as you are easy on the gas pedal you should be fine. I upgraded my dana 35 shafts to Yukon "hardened" shafts which are supposed to be 30% stronger than a stock shaft and they were pretty cheap. I got a pair for $125 plus $10 to ship them. IF you are locked, I would reccomend adding the hardened shafts, if not, you should be ok.