Placing reliability in first place, any tire larger than 35" should be run with axles larger than Dana 44s. Dana 60s, 14 bolts, Ford Super Duty axles, etc.
WOW you are willing to give up allot of performance in the name of reliability. I run 34's and 36's on my Jeep w/ a hp30 and 8.8, I have only ever spit the caps on the u-joints and now there tacked in that shouldn't be an issue anymore, and I often think I should have kept the 35 instead of the 8.8 as the 8.8 is a pig. I wouldn't run 1-ton axles w/ anything less than 40" tires and a V-8, I would rather sink money into beefing up a 44 w/ chromo's and a truss, this would be a realiable set-up on 38's, and I know a few guys running this way.
I personally follow the thought that if an axle doesn't break once in a while, when on hard trails, you have over built, making the rig heavier, killing ground clearence and losing capability. How often a breakage happens is personal opinion is once a month acceptable, or once a year, or once every five years, and the answer to that will be a big factor into how you should build a rig. Of course if you say never breaking is the only acceptable answer, then you better be running 1 tons and 31's.